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Prisfald på boliger

19 May 2022 -

Jeg har tænkt lidt mere på hvad den stigende rente og inflationen gør ved boligpriser og afdragsbyrde. I dag er den faste rente på et 30-årigt obligationslån steget til 4% (rd.dk) fra 1,5% tidligere i år. Det betyder at et rent annuitetslån er blevet godt 1200,- dyrere om måneden pr. million før skat. For at ramme samme ydelse, skal lånebeløbet falde med ca. 25% (før rentefradrag)!

Det ser ud til at også bankerne er ved at melde det ud, i første omgang Handelsbanken (Finans.dk 18. maj):

Vi venter således som udgangspunkt, at huspriserne på landsplan vil falde med i omegnen af 10-15 pct. over det kommende års tid, og vi vil bestemt ikke udelukke mere markante prisfald i de dyreste områder som for eksempel lejlighedsmarkedet i København.

Og Nordea Kredit og Jyske Realkredit (Finans.dk 19. maj):

I kommuner, hvor boligpriserne er uændrede i forhold til 1. januar 2021, skal boligkøbere forhandle et afslag på 16 pct. hjem, før de er kompenseret for de sidste 16 måneders stigende renter.

Samtidig er prisen steget på både varme, transport og fødevarer, så rådighedsbeløbet udhules. Det er længe siden vi har været i sådan en økonomisk situation.

A Quadra in the Browser

18 May 2022 -

More nostalgia :) Mihai Parparita:

I wondered what it would take to extend the Basilisk II support to have a macintosh.js-like experience in the browser, and ideally go beyond it.

Experience the classic Mac with System 7 or MacOS 8 right in the browser! I love it!

Boligpriser og afdragsbyrde

16 May 2022 -

Jeg ville finde historiske tal for renteniveau, boligpriser, indkomst og lignende for at kunne regne på hvor stor en andel af indkomsten boligkøb kræver og dermed få en fornemmelse af om priserne historisk set er høje eller om det ‘blot’ er en form for inflation. Det har stor betydning for udsigten til videre stigninger. Jeg har fokuseret på lejligheder i hovedstadsområdet.

På Danmarks Statistik fandt jeg historik over realkreditrente, prisindeks for ejerlejligheder og flere lønindeks for hovedstadsregionen. Samlet tænkte jeg at det kunne give en fornemmelse af prisudviklingen uden at blive farvet af de nominelt oplevede høje priser. Ved at gange rentesatsen med boligprisen fås et udtryk for renteomkostningen. Umiddelbart ser det ud til at det relativt er blevet billigere at købe bolig i hovedstaden siden 2007. I beregningen mangler dog den væsentlige parameter der er selve afdraget.

Heldigvis har andre fået en tilsvarende idé. Begreberne kaldes ‘boligbyrde’ og ‘afdragsbyrde’ og jeg fandt hos Realkredit Danmark en analyse af boligbyrden og afdragsbyrden fra oktober 2020. Afdrag regnes normalt ikke med som en byrde, fordi det teknisk set er en (tvungen) opsparing og ikke en udgift, men det har stor betydning for ens muligheder for at låne, så at de har medtaget den beregning er på tide.

RD noterer at boligbyrden (uden afdrag) var omkring 8% over det historiske gennemsnit for ejerlejligheder i hovedstadsområdet. Ikke overraskende er den meget lave rente det væsentligste bidrag til den lave boligbyrde. Af samme årsag vil en rentestigning føre til en stigende boligbyrde og RD beregner da også at boligbyrden vil stige til 40% over det historiske gennemsnit ved en rentestigning på 2 procentpoint. Fra et historisk lavt niveau vil det ikke være uhørt. Alligevel skriver RD

Der er derfor heller ikke skyggen af en boligprisboble – eller tegn på en større risiko for at den er i gang med at opstå – på det danske boligmarked overordnet set.

Nu ved jeg ikke hvordan en prisboble teknisk er defineret, men jeg ville have troet at så stor en rentefølsomhed ville vække bekymring. Nå, RD har også inkluderet afdragsbyrden på figur 7 fra rapporten:

Afdragsbyrden i København nærmer sig niveauet op til finanskrisen og var i 2020 næsten 35% over det historiske gennemsnit. Uden stigning i den historisk lave rente. Siden starten af 2021 og frem til maj 2022 er renten steget med ca. 3 procentpoint. Nationalbanken noterer at realkreditrenten er fordoblet på et år til februar 2022 og Berlingske skriver 9. maj:

De seneste dages himmelflugt i renterne fik mandag Realkredit Danmark til at åbne for fastforrentede 30-årige lån med fire procent i rente. Det gælder både lån med afdrag og ti års afdragsfrihed. Indtil nu har det ellers kun været fastforrentede lån med 30 års afdragsfrihed, der har haft en rente på fire procent. Det vil sige, at det fra starten af året – hvor et fastforrentet lån lå til 1,5 procent – er blevet 565 kroner dyrere om måneden at låne en million kroner efter skat.

Et prisfald må forventes på den baggrund. I øvrigt undrer det mig at det tilsyneladende ikke er fast praksis hos de danske realkreditinstitutter at offentliggøre beregninger over boligbyrde og afdragsbyrde — i hvert fald har jeg ikke kunnet finde sådanne rapporter online.

Google Search is Dying

08 May 2022 -

DKB:

Why are people searching Reddit specifically? The short answer is that Google search results are clearly dying. The long answer is that most of the web has become too inauthentic to trust.

In addition to being offended by their privacy invading practices, it seems to me that the results have been deteriorating over the years. And the ads take up ever more space.

I switched to DuckDuckGo some years ago and while I can’t say I haven’t looked back, I prefer it for many search terms.

The Jargon File on MacOS X

06 May 2022 -

Around 17 years ago when MacOS X ‘Tiger’ was introduced and included the Dictionary application, I had the idea to compile the Jargon File in a compatible format (the Jargon File is a glossary of computer related slang). Unfortunately nothing came of it. Revisiting old files and blog posts made me look at the idea again.

The Jargon File is maintained in XML Docbook format and the format Apple uses for the dictionaries on MacOS is also an XML specification, so XSL transformation should be a reasonable way. The specification is included with the “Additional Tools for Xcode” download from Apple’s Developer pages (requires account). Rather than setting up the entire Docbook toolchain, I opted for xsltproc to handle the XSL transformation. Unfortunately the parser complains about undefined entities in the jargon source and it does not seem possible to define them without altering the original xml.

<!ENTITY % xhtml-lat1
    PUBLIC "-//W3C//ENTITIES Latin 1 for XHTML//EN"
            "xhtml-lat1.ent" >
%xhtml-lat1;

<!ENTITY % xhtml-special
    PUBLIC "-//W3C//ENTITIES Special for XHTML//EN"
            "xhtml-special.ent" >
%xhtml-special;

<!ENTITY % xhtml-symbol
    PUBLIC "-//W3C//ENTITIES Symbols for XHTML//EN"
            "xhtml-symbol.ent" >
%xhtml-symbol;

After further reading of both specs and experimenting with the samples included in the Dictionary Development Kit downloaded from Apple, I managed to get a reasonable part of the glossary converted:

xsltproc -o appleformat.xml transformation.xsl jargon.xml

Combining the resulting xml file with a stylesheet and the various images included, the dictionary can be built from the Makefile provided with the dictionary devkit.

To install, download the Jargon File for MacOS X, move the dictionary to the ~/Library/Dictionaries/ folder, then open Dictionary and activate the dictionary from the Preferences. The project files are also available on GitHub. Feels good to complete an old geeky idea.

Robot Finds Remains of Another

29 Apr 2022 -

NASA’s Ingenuity Mars Helicopter spots debris from Perseverance’s landing equipment.

Teddy Tzanetos, Ingenuity’s team lead at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California:

“Every time we’re airborne, Ingenuity covers new ground and offers a perspective no previous planetary mission could achieve. Mars Sample Return’s reconnaissance request is a perfect example of the utility of aerial platforms on Mars.”

Stunning and otherworldly images taken, incredibly, by a robotic helicopter on Mars!

The Web is Thriving Again

27 Apr 2022 -

Anil Dash:

It is still truly possible for one person to make a website, without asking permission of any of the giant tech companies, and create an experience that touches millions of people. Maybe it’s to share a meaningful experience, or a fun game, or a weird obsession, or just to tell a story — the web was born to make these things possible.

I would absolutely love if the wild creativity from the early days of the web came back.

HyperCard Art Bits

27 Apr 2022 -

Classic bitmaps extracted from the old HyperCard stack “Art Bits” by Apple! Really brings back memories :)

Migrating source code

22 Apr 2022 -

When I first started programming in HyperCard and later Think C on my family’s Macintosh SE in the mid 90’s, I had never heard of version control systems. Early in the 2000’s I started using CVS and like many I moved on to Subversion and now Git. Unfortunately I did not have the foresight to migrate all my projects at the time and I now have both CVS and SVN repository backups locally on my machine.

Subversion

After some searching, the steps to migrate the Subversion repo were clear (Useful guides by Piotr Fert, Brajesh Sachan and Tommy). First restore the svn backup to a local repo using the same svnadmin that built the backup:

svnadmin load repo/dir < svnbackup

Then create an authors.txt file to map svn commit usernames to git users in this format:

username = First Surname <[email protected]>

The repo can now be checked out with git-svn and all changes will be preserved in a new git repository:

git svn clone repo/dir --no-metadata -A authors-transform.txt --stdlayout checkout/dir

Looking at the branches with git branch -a, all the SVN branches are now set as Git remotes. These can be re-branched in git on the appropriate commit hash and then removed. There are a few SVN references left to be removed

git branch -d -r trunk
git config --remove-section svn-remote.svn
rm -rf .git/svn .git/{logs/,}refs/remotes/svn/

CVS

This was not as easy as several of the suggested tools no longer works. cvs-fast-export did, however, and combined with git, the process was actually rather simple. Export the repository to a git import stream:

cd cvs/repo
find . |cvs-fast-export > ../stream.fe

Then, initialize and import into new git repo

cd ..
git init reponame
cd reponame
git fast-import < ../stream.fe

Github

To move these to GitHub, simply create a new, empty repository in GitHub, set the remote and push.

Even though I rarely, if ever, need this old code, it’s part of my history and nostalgic like old photos can be. Feels good to have salvaged part of it.

Back online

21 Apr 2022 -

It’s been more than ten years since the last blog post to this site. A lot will happen in ten years. I’ve grown Simpelt Regnskab, started with Jacob Oettinger in 2009, from a side project to my daily job. I moved to a new appartment with my girlfriend in 2012. I became a father in 2016 to a wonderful girl. As my focus changed, I stopped maintaining the site and I eventually retired the old content and replaced it with a single about page. I’ve since missed having a place online to publish thoughts and interesting links on several occasions, stubborn enough that I feel, it should be my own place and not some platform I have no control over. So, I finally brought back online some of the old content and prepared for new thoughts. Feels good.

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